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File #: 20-0821    Version: 1 Name:
Type: Action Item Status: Agenda Ready
File created: 9/2/2020 In control: Water Conservation and Demand Management
On agenda: 9/29/2020 Final action:
Title: Water Demand Forecasting
Attachments: 1. Attachment 1: Staff Presentation

Water Conservation and Demand Management
Water Demand Forecasting

This is an information only item, no action is required.

In November 2019, the Santa Clara Valley Water District (Valley Water) Board of Directors (Board) adopted the Water Supply Master Plan 2040 (Master Plan), which sets a new level of service goal, defines an investment strategy, and recommends a suite of projects to achieve the investment strategy and level of service goal. To determine the level of new investments that may be needed to achieve our level of service goal through 2040, Valley Water uses a demand forecasting model. Valley Water developed the Master Plan demand forecasts in 2016 using the best available knowledge of how Santa Clara County would use water after the drought (i.e., drought rebound) and the best available housing and economic development data. Since 2016, significantly more is known about Santa Clara County's drought rebound, there is a longer water use dataset available, and new housing and economic development forecasts (e.g., Plan Bay Area). Through a competitive bid process, Valley Water contracted with Hazen and Sawyer (Consultant) to develop a new demand model that will provide new demand forecasts. The new demand model provides forecasted demands in 5-year increments out to 2045 to meet our current planning needs. Valley Water's recommended demand scenario forecasts 2040 demands to be approximately 335 thousand acre-feet (TAF). This memorandum summarizes the demand modeling purpose, results, and next steps.

Water Demand Model Development
The new demand model combines the latest science and data to forecast demands through 2045. A reliable water demand forecast helps determine what level of investment is necessary to meet Valley Water's level of service goal. The Master Plan defines Valley Water's level of service goal to be "to develop water supplies designed...

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